Critical Supply Chain Challenges: Cargo Theft, IMO’s Net-Zero Framework, and Infrastructure Breakdowns

 
 

 

The supply chain landscape continues to face mounting challenges on multiple fronts. From surging cargo theft threatening billions in losses to international shipping’s climate regulation revolt, and critical infrastructure projects spiraling out of control, supply chain managers must navigate an increasingly complex environment. Here’s what you need to know about three critical issues shaping the Washington maritime industry today.

1. DOT Takes Action on America’s $35 Billion Cargo Theft Crisis

The Department of Transportation has issued a critical call to action, opening a public comment period through October 20, 2025, seeking industry input on the escalating cargo theft crisis (DOT-OST-2025-1326-0001). This initiative couldn’t come at a more crucial time.

Cargo theft is costing the U.S. transportation system billions annually, involving both opportunistic “straight thefts” of trailers, containers, and loads at truck stops or multimodal distribution hubs and highly coordinated operations conducted by organized criminal networks. The impact extends far beyond financial losses—these crimes disrupt supply chains and in some cases fund broader illicit activities such as narcotics trafficking, counterfeiting, and human smuggling.

The Scale of the Problem

Industry data paints a disturbing picture of the crisis’s magnitude. An estimated 65,000 thefts occurred in 2024, representing about a 40% increase over the prior year. Looking ahead, industry leaders estimate cargo theft will rise 25% in 2025. This represents real disruptions to businesses and consumers alike and is essentially a tax built into the system.

I don’t know about you, but I’ve paid enough.

How You Can Help

The DOT is actively seeking input from:

  • State, metropolitan, and local agencies
  • Law enforcement
  • Carriers, shippers, and drivers
  • Warehouse operators (including at airports)
  • Insurers
  • The general public

Action Required: Submit your comments via Regulations.gov at the docket number DOT-OST-2025-1326 before the October 20, 2025 deadline. Your insights will help shape federal strategies to combat this growing threat.

2. Major Shipowners Revolt Against IMO’s Net-Zero Framework

In an unprecedented move that could reshape global shipping regulations, 15 major shipowners representing more than 1,200 ships and 150 million deadweight tons have issued a joint statement expressing “grave concerns” with the International Maritime Organization’s Net-Zero Framework. The signatories include industry giants like Frontline, GasLog, Bahri, and the Angelicoussis Group.

The Framework at a Glance

Approved at MEPC 83 in April 2025, the IMO Net-Zero Framework is the first in the world to combine mandatory emissions limits and GHG pricing across an entire industry sector. Starting in 2027, large ships will need to meet a new global fuel standard limiting greenhouse gas emissions per unit of fuel used, with goals to reduce fuel intensity by 43% by 2035 compared to 2008 levels.

Why the Revolt Matters

The shipowners’ concerns are both practical and economic:

  1. Unrealistic fuel requirements: The statement noted that shipping today consumes about 3% of global energy, but to meet 2040 targets under current proposals, the industry would require about 50% of expected global production of low-carbon hydrogen intended to serve all industries.
  2. Financial burden: The proposals would raise $20-30 billion annually by 2030 but could “quickly” accumulate more than $300 billion by 2035 if the global fleet lags targets “by as little as 10%.”
  3. Implementation impossibility: The owners argue that “these fundamental issues cannot be resolved by emerging guidelines post-adoption.”

Implications for the Industry

This revolt comes at a critical time, with the framework scheduled for formal adoption at an extraordinary IMO meeting from October 14-17, 2025. The Trump Administration has already unequivocally rejected the proposal, calling it “effectively a global carbon tax on Americans” and threatening retaliation against nations that support it.

For supply chain managers, this regulatory uncertainty creates significant challenges for long-term planning, vessel investments, and fuel strategy decisions. The adoption or rejection of this framework will fundamentally impact shipping costs and operations for decades to come.

Close to home, the Port of Seattle has supported the adoption of alternative marine fuels for years. This statement and lack of support from carriers signals trouble for both the IMO and the Port of Seattle. We can develop all the methanol in the world (for example), but if there is no customer base or safety framework in place, who will be consuming it?

Alternative Fuels is one of 10 topics planned for the National Harbor Safety Conference next March 24-26th at Bell Harbor in Seattle.

Here’s the full list:

  1. Federal Agency Perspectives
  2. Understanding Alternative Fuels
  3. Shipboard Firefighting
  4. Harbor Safety Committee Challenges
  5. The Fragility of the Marine Transportation System
  6. Coordinating Live Exercises
  7. Maritime Workforce Development
  8. Leveraging Existing Safety Campaigns
  9. Lessons Learned from the Francis Scott Key Bridge Allision and Collapse
  10. There’s No Wrong Way to Do It (Harbor Safety Committee Perspectives)

3. I-5 Bridge Replacement: A Case Study in Infrastructure Crisis

The Interstate 5 Bridge Replacement project between Portland and Vancouver has become a cautionary tale of infrastructure planning gone awry, with direct implications for Pacific Northwest shipping and trade.

Spiraling Costs and Delays

Project planners originally estimated the price tag would range from $5 billion to $7.5 billion, with a likely figure of around $6 billion. But legislators now expect the total could reach $10 billion as costs have escalated 30% on transportation projects in the Seattle and Portland regions in recent years.

The timeline has slipped significantly as well. A final environmental review originally supposed to conclude in 2025 is now expected in 2026, with cars potentially not crossing a new bridge until 2032 or 2033. Meanwhile, Vancouver Mayor Anne McEnerny-Ogle warned that construction delays would cost $1 million per day.

Why This Matters for Maritime Trade

The I-5 bridge is a critical link in the Pacific Northwest’s supply chain infrastructure:

  1. Freight mobility: The current bridge creates bottlenecks for trucks moving between the ports of Portland, Vancouver, and Seattle
  2. Port access: Delays and congestion impact container drayage and bulk commodity movements
  3. Regional competitiveness: Infrastructure failures make PNW ports less attractive compared to Southern California alternatives
  4. Economic impact: IBR Program investments aim to improve freight mobility through interchange design improvements and auxiliary lanes to help freight move through the corridor more safely and efficiently.

Political Headwinds

Washington state Rep. John Ley has reached out to U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy to encourage scrutiny of the project and consider clawing back the $2.1 billion in federal grant dollars. This political uncertainty, combined with cost overruns and delays, exemplifies the broader infrastructure challenges facing American supply chains.

Risking the obvious, we need to get this bridge built. I think a worthy study here is not IF we need certain projects or investments but WHY they become so expensive with increasingly feeble results.

Sam Kaplan from the Center of Excellence of Global Trade and Supply Chain Management in Washington state discusses this phenomenon of rising costs with diminishing returns on a recent Maritime Morning Brief podcast.

Weekly Ship Count Update

From our latest weekly roundup, vessel arrivals at Pacific Northwest ports show mixed patterns:

Berth Arrivals by Port (Week-over-Week)

  • Seattle: 23 arrivals (↓1)
  • Tacoma: 20 arrivals (↑2)
  • Cherry Point: 6 arrivals (↑1)
  • March Point: 6 arrivals (↑1)
  • Total PNW: 63 arrivals (↓2)

Container vessel calls remained relatively stable at 15 arrivals, while vehicle carriers showed a bump up with 8 arrivals (↑3). Tanker traffic increased slightly to 13 arrivals, reflecting steady energy commodity flows through regional refineries.

Looking Ahead: Strategic Considerations

These three issues (cargo theft, shipping regulations, and infrastructure) represent interconnected challenges requiring coordinated responses:

  1. Risk Management: Supply chain managers must factor in increased security costs, potential regulatory compliance expenses, and infrastructure-related delays into their planning
  2. Modal Flexibility: With trucking facing theft risks and infrastructure bottlenecks, consider alternative transportation modes where feasible
  3. Regulatory Engagement: The comment periods for both DOT’s cargo theft initiative and IMO’s framework represent opportunities to shape policy
  4. Infrastructure Advocacy: Support realistic, funded infrastructure projects that enhance rather than complicate supply chain operations
  5. Technology Investment: Consider solutions that provide real-time visibility, enhance security, and optimize routing around infrastructure constraints

Conclusion

The supply chain landscape of late 2025 demands unprecedented agility and strategic thinking. From protecting cargo against sophisticated theft rings to navigating the uncertain waters of environmental regulation and managing around crumbling infrastructure, today’s supply chain professionals face challenges on multiple fronts.

The key to success lies in active engagement, whether commenting on proposed regulations, investing in security measures, or advocating for sensible infrastructure solutions. The decisions made in the coming months, particularly around the IMO framework and major infrastructure projects, will shape supply chain operations for years to come.

Stay informed, stay engaged, and most importantly, make your voice heard in these critical policy discussions. The October 20 deadline for DOT cargo theft comments and the October 14-17 IMO meeting represent immediate opportunities to influence the future of our industry.

 

 

Weekly Roundup: A Week of Shifts and Strategic Adjustments

Week Ending: August 8, 2025

The maritime landscape of Puget Sound continues to evolve, with this week’s data revealing significant shifts in vessel traffic patterns that reflect broader economic trends and seasonal adjustments across the Pacific Northwest’s critical port network.

Leadership Update: Senator Liias Steps In

The Marine Exchange of Puget Sound’s upcoming Annual Meeting received an important update this week. While Representative Julia Reed was unable to participate as originally planned, Senator Marko Liias, Chair of the Senate Transportation Committee, has graciously agreed to address Marine Exchange members and participate in a private Q&A session. This high-level engagement underscores the continued importance of maritime infrastructure in Washington State’s economic strategy.

For industry professionals who haven’t yet registered, please do so today as the event is expected to reach capacity. The meeting represents a crucial opportunity for maritime stakeholders to engage directly with key policymakers shaping transportation infrastructure decisions.

Container Traffic Takes a Notable Dip

Perhaps the most striking development this week was the dramatic 45% decline in container vessel arrivals, dropping from 20 to just 11 vessels. This significant reduction likely reflects ongoing supply chain adjustments as the industry continues to navigate post-pandemic logistics patterns and evolving global trade dynamics.

The container shipping decline stands in contrast to other vessel categories, suggesting this may be a sector-specific adjustment rather than a broader economic slowdown affecting all maritime activity.

Tourism and Energy Sectors Show Resilience

While container traffic declined, passenger vessels demonstrated predictable growth with a 17% increase, rising from 12 to 14 arrivals. This uptick aligns with Seattle’s position as a major cruise destination and reflects the continued strength of the Pacific Northwest’s tourism sector.

Tanker operations remained remarkably stable, maintaining exactly 12 arrivals for the second consecutive week. This consistency in energy supply operations indicates steady demand and reliable logistics networks supporting the region’s energy infrastructure.

Regional Distribution Reveals Strategic Patterns

The geographic distribution of vessel arrivals tells an interesting story of regional specialization and market adaptation. While major ports like Seattle and Tacoma saw modest decreases (Seattle down 1, Tacoma down 4), smaller specialized facilities experienced significant growth.

Cherry Point emerged as a standout performer with a 133% increase, jumping from 3 to 7 arrivals. Similarly, Aberdeen doubled its weekly traffic from 1 to 3 vessels, representing a 200% increase. These gains at specialized facilities suggest a strategic shift toward more distributed port operations and potentially more efficient cargo handling at targeted locations.

Seasonal Patterns and Market Adjustments

The 43% decline in bulk cargo arrivals from 7 to 4 vessels reflects predictable seasonal patterns in commodity flows. Bulk cargo operations often follow agricultural and industrial cycles, and this adjustment appears consistent with normal seasonal variations rather than indicating market distress.

Vehicle transport showed healthy growth with a 40% increase, rising from 5 to 7 arrivals. This uptick could reflect continued strength in automotive markets or strategic inventory positioning by manufacturers and dealers.

System Reliability Remains Strong

Despite the various shifts in traffic patterns, the Marine Exchange reports all systems operational with AIS (Automatic Identification System) and radio communications maintaining full functionality. This operational reliability provides the foundation for safe and efficient maritime operations regardless of traffic volume fluctuations.

Looking Ahead

The total weekly arrivals of 63 vessels (up slightly from 62 the previous week) demonstrates the overall resilience of the Puget Sound maritime system. While individual sectors experience natural fluctuations, the port network’s ability to maintain steady overall activity while adapting to changing market conditions speaks to the region’s maritime infrastructure strength.

With an average of six arrivals daily, Puget Sound continues to serve as a critical gateway for Pacific Northwest commerce. The diversity of vessel types and port destinations provides operational flexibility that allows the system to adapt to changing economic conditions and market demands.

As maritime industry leaders and operators prepare for the Annual Meeting with Senator Liias, these traffic patterns will likely inform discussions about infrastructure priorities and policy directions that will shape the region’s maritime future. The data suggests a dynamic, adaptable system well-positioned to meet evolving challenges while maintaining its role as a cornerstone of regional economic activity.

The Marine Exchange of Puget Sound continues to provide critical coordination and communication services supporting safe, efficient maritime operations across the Pacific Northwest’s vital port network.

Weekly Roundup: Vessel Traffic & Community Connects

Communications Director, Sara Zeman, at Feet Week 2025

Week Ending: August 8, 2025

Vessel Arrivals This Week

Total berth arrivals: 62 vessels (up from 57 last week, up 8.8%)

Container and tanker traffic both climbed sharply this week, with container arrivals up 43% (14 → 20) and tankers up 71% (7 → 12). Bulk traffic also rose by 40%. General cargo, however, dropped off completely after six arrivals last week. Passenger vessel traffic dipped slightly, and vehicle and Ro/Ro movements remained steady.

Berth Arrivals by Port

Seattle remained stable with 26 vessel calls, while Tacoma rose 18% with three additional arrivals. March Point, Ferndale, and several smaller ports like Aberdeen, Bellingham, and Port Angeles all saw modest gains. In contrast, Everett dropped significantly from five vessels to just one — the largest decline across the region.

System Status Report

AIS Coverage: All seven monitored AIS stations are operational.

Radio Communications: Buck Station & Ellis Station remain operational.

No disruptions were reported in critical communication or tracking systems this week.

Week Ahead Outlook

Looking ahead, we expect continued strength in container and tanker traffic, with energy trade and cargo flows remaining steady. General cargo movements may return to baseline after this week’s zero activity. Passenger vessel activity is expected to remain consistent as seasonal patterns settle.

Community Highlight: Connecting at Fleet Week

The Marine Exchange team had a great time engaging with the public during SeaFari Fleet Week, where we staffed a booth to help connect the maritime community with resources, knowledge, and career insight. Hundreds of visitors, from seasoned industry professionals to curious kids, stopped by to ask questions, share stories, and pick up our latest materials.

We fielded questions about AIS tracking, general on-water operations, maritime careers, and how local organizations can better connect across the sector. It was a reminder of how valuable these public-facing events are for education and outreach.

As an organization deeply embedded in every layer of Puget Sound’s maritime operations, we’re proud to serve as a bridge between industry and the public. If you weren’t able to attend and would like vessel data cards, a copy of the annual report, or other resources, just send us a note — we’re happy to share.

 

Weekly Roundup: Steady Port Activity Masks Significant Cargo Mix Shift in Puget Sound Waters

washington state maritime industrial waterfront and port infrastructure

Weekly Maritime Intelligence Report from the Marine Exchange of Puget Sound

This week’s vessel traffic data reveals an intriguing story beneath the surface of seemingly stable arrival numbers. While overall berth arrivals remained virtually unchanged at 60 vessels (down marginally from 61 last week), the composition of traffic tells a more dynamic tale of shifting maritime patterns across Washington State ports.

Key Performance Indicators

The headline numbers show remarkable stability in our region’s maritime gateway function:

  • Total arrivals: 60 vessels (-2% week-over-week)
  • Leading port: Seattle maintained its dominance with 26 arrivals (+18%)
  • Container traffic: Steady at 14 arrivals, indicating stable trans-Pacific trade flows

The General Cargo Surge: A Signal Worth Watching

Perhaps the most significant development this week was the dramatic return of general cargo vessels to our waters. After recording zero arrivals last week, this category surged to 6 vessels—a swing that demands attention from port operators and logistics professionals alike.

This influx of general cargo vessels typically signals one of several developments:

  • Project cargo movements supporting major infrastructure initiatives
  • Breakbulk operations indicating industrial expansion or equipment imports
  • Seasonal shifts in cargo patterns requiring specialized handling

For supply chain managers and port planners, this volatility in general cargo arrivals underscores the importance of maintaining flexible berth allocation strategies and ensuring adequate heavy-lift capabilities remain available.

Port-by-Port Analysis: Winners and Challenges

Growth Leaders

  • Everett: Impressive 67% increase (3 to 5 arrivals)
  • Cherry Point & March Point: Both refineries saw 25% increases
  • Seattle: Continued strength with 18% growth, cementing its regional leadership

Areas of Concern

Three ports—Aberdeen, Olympia, and Port Angeles—recorded zero arrivals this week, a stark reminder of the uneven distribution of maritime activity across our region. Aberdeen’s drop from 5 arrivals to none particularly stands out and warrants monitoring for potential operational or market-driven factors.

Sector Performance Insights

The vessel mix data reveals several trends that maritime stakeholders should factor into their planning:

  1. Passenger vessels continued their strong performance (+17%), reflecting robust cruise season activity
  2. Tanker traffic declined 22%, potentially indicating shifts in energy logistics or refinery maintenance schedules
  3. Container and bulk cargo remained flat, suggesting stable but uninspiring trade volumes

Year-to-Date Context: A Broader Perspective

July’s comprehensive data provides valuable context for understanding current trends:

  • YTD growth: +1.6% overall, indicating modest but positive expansion
  • Passenger segment: +7.7% YTD, confirming the cruise industry’s strong recovery
  • ATB movements: -25% YTD, signaling a significant shift in regional energy transport patterns

This divergence between growing passenger traffic and declining ATB movements illustrates the evolving nature of our maritime economy, with implications for port infrastructure investment and workforce planning.

Operational Excellence Maintained

All AIS towers remain fully operational, ensuring comprehensive vessel tracking capabilities across Puget Sound. This technical reliability underpins the safety and efficiency of our waterways, particularly crucial as we navigate the complexities of mixed vessel traffic patterns.

Strategic Implications for Maritime Leaders

For executives and policymakers, this week’s data suggests several action items:

  1. Infrastructure Planning: The volatility in general cargo arrivals highlights the need for flexible, multi-purpose terminal capabilities
  2. Market Intelligence: The stark differences between ports underscore the importance of sub-regional market analysis
  3. Energy Transition: Declining tanker and ATB traffic may reflect broader shifts in regional energy infrastructure requiring strategic adaptation

Looking Ahead

As we monitor these evolving patterns, key questions emerge:

  • Will the general cargo surge represent a new trend or prove to be an anomaly?
  • Can smaller ports like Aberdeen reverse their declining traffic patterns?
  • How will container repositioning challenges affect future vessel calls?

The maritime industry’s ability to adapt to these shifting patterns will determine the competitiveness of our regional ports in an increasingly dynamic global trade environment.

Patrick Gallagher is the Executive Director of the Marine Exchange of Puget Sound. This analysis is part of the weekly Gallagher Report series, providing data-driven insights for maritime industry leaders.